The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species is clear: it is estimated that African forest elephants have lost over 86% of their numbers, gorillas 70% and chimpanzees 60%…
According to scientists, these staggering figures are directly attributable to human activity, including rampant deforestation and intensive poaching. But another equally implacable predator now threatens the continent’s fabulous bestiary: climate disruption.
The impacts of global warming are already being felt in the tropics. Heatwaves, droughts, mega-fires, rising sea levels… these are just some of the major upheavals that are seriously disrupting ecosystems that are sometimes in a fragile state of equilibrium.
As a result, African nature is suffering. On all fronts, scientists are observing a rapid decline in biodiversity under the combined effect of climate change and direct human action. The sad scenario of a continent emptied of its fantastic fauna by 2050 has never seemed so credible as it does today.
And yet, contrary to popular belief, Africa is not responsible for the disruption of the climate machine. As the continent with the lowest per capita CO2 emissions, it is above all suffering the dramatic consequences of a largely imported thermometric runaway.
But from the Sahel to the rainforest, via coastal and island ecosystems, it’s the whole of Africa’s fauna that finds itself in turmoil. In the face of these sudden upheavals, scientists are concerned about the limited capacity of many species to adapt, pushing them towards possible extinction within a few decades.
So, is it an inexorable decline, or is there still time for a collective awakening? Are we helplessly witnessing the first signs of the predicted hecatomb of the African bestiary? Or can we still act to increase its resilience and give it a chance to adapt? That’s what this dossier is all about, looking for avenues of hope before it’s too late.
Catastrophic consequences already observed
The figures speak for themselves. According to the IPCC’s sixth report, published in 2022, “climate disruption due to human activities is exacerbating the strong pressures already exerted by man on ecosystems and species, leading us straight towards the sixth species extinction crisis”.
These terrifying projections unfortunately confirm what many scientists are already observing in the field today. Under the combined effect of rising temperatures, the multiplication of extreme climatic phenomena and the ever-increasing pressure of human activity, the alarm bells are ringing.
There are countless publications reporting the widespread decline of many once abundant large mammals. Starting with the African elephant, the emblematic victim of global warming. Over the period 2008-2018, Ghana saw its pachyderm population decline considerably. The same catastrophic trend can be seen in Tanzania, where elephant numbers in the famous Ruaha National Park are estimated to have fallen by two-thirds in just 7 years.
Another of the continent’s flagship species, the rhinoceros, is also on the front line. In Chad, after decades of intensive poaching, the population of Zakouma Park is hanging on by a thread. With fewer individuals than in previous years, their future looks even bleaker under the impact of climate change. Water stress, changes in plant cover… their environment is rapidly deteriorating.
The same worrying scenario can be observed among the great apes. In Nigeria, the number of chimpanzees has been reduced in just five years in several forest reserves, due to the dual effects of deforestation and rising temperatures. The same is true of mountain gorilla colonies, whose numbers are plummeting in Rwanda and Uganda.
Unfortunately, the list of African mammals suffering as a result of climate change goes on and on. Hunting dogs, cheetahs, zebras, antelopes, lions… To varying degrees, all are feeling the full force of the rapid evolution of their habitat. And they risk joining the cohort of species now extinct on the continent.
Massive range shifts
At the same time as these worrying declines, scientists have been observing significant movements of many animal species out of their traditional areas of distribution in recent years.
Under pressure from rising temperatures and dwindling resources, animals haveno choice but to adapt. Even if it means migrating en masse to warmer climes. This phenomenon is now well documented, as demonstrated by the spectacular movements of several elephant colonies in Zimbabwe. Faced with increasing drought, whole groups of pachyderms have undertaken huge transhumance movements towards Bostwana, where access to water is easier and more abundant.
Reproduction and migration turned upside down
Among other already tangible consequences of climate change, researchers are highlighting increasing disruption to animal reproductive cycles and the traditional migration patterns of many species.
Another worrying phenomenon directly linked to climate change is the intensification of epizootics affecting African megafauna. Repeated droughts and successive heatwaves weaken animals’ immune defenses, facilitating the spread of often fatal diseases.
The result: ever more frequent and deadly outbreaks of infectious diseases. Foot-and-mouth disease, rinderpest, anthrax, Ebola virus… major epizootics are already periodically decimating herds of weakened wildebeest, antelope or zebra, whose future is more than uncertain.
Finally, as far as migratory birds are concerned, their dependence on the climate also makes them highly vulnerable to its disruption. In recent years, there has been an increasing number of cases of swallows and storks dying as a result of out-of-season winds and storms that disrupt their journeys, as well as the desynchronization of food availability. A bad omen for species whose very survival depends on a transcontinental logic of annual migration over several thousand kilometers.
First local extinctions on the horizon
Even more dramatically, scientists are beginning to document the very first waves of local extinctions directly attributable to climate change in Africa. And this is probably just the beginning…
On the high peaks of the Rift Valley, for example, geladas, the world’s only high-altitude herbivorous “baboons”, are seeing their territory shrink to nothing. Victims of the accelerated retreat of glaciers and eternal snow due to global warming, fewer and fewer of them are able to find the conditions they need to survive in this hostile zone. At current rates, their total extinction in the wild is expected in just a few decades.
The same catastrophic scenario applies to the Seychelles giant tortoise. Infatuated with the coral beaches on which it feeds, this endemic species can no longer compensate for the exponential rise in the level of the Indian Ocean, which is drowning its egg-laying habitats. From several hundred thousand to just a few individuals, it is heading straight for inevitable extinction in the near future.
The fate of polar bears is just as worrying. A symbol par excellence of climate change, their numbers have already fallen by two-thirds in recent years. With the sea ice retreating inexorably, their hunting grounds are shrinking like a stone. Unable to find enough seals to eat, their numbers are doomed to decline rapidly to the point of total extinction, according to the most alarmist projections… but unfortunately not the least credible.
In the end, nature sends out distress signals in all directions. Declining populations, forced migration, reproductive problems, epizootics, the first waves of extinction… Global warming is already sounding the death knell for many of the continent’s most emblematic species. And this is probably just the beginning.
Unless a collective global effort is made to counter this peril and help living organisms adapt, the prospect of a generalized hecatomb of African fauna becomes more real every day. More than ever, the ball is in the court of the most invasive species of all: humankind…
Scientists’ alarming projections
The consequences of global warming on African biodiversity are already devastating. Alas, the worst is probably yet to come, given the alarming estimates made by experts for the coming decades.
Even in the – increasingly illusory – hypothesis that temperature rises will be contained below the critical threshold of +2°C on a global scale, projections point to an unprecedented collapse of sub-Saharan flora and fauna. Let’s take a closer look at these looming disaster scenarios.
The predicted disappearance of half of all vertebrate species
Let’s start with the most staggering projection. In its latest report, published in 2022, the IPCC estimates that, with unchanged policies, climate disruption could be responsible for the local disappearance of a large number of vertebrate species in sub-Saharan Africa!
To take the measure of this apocalyptic prospect, let’s remember that 99% of mammal species extinctions recorded worldwide over the last 500 years already concern… Africa! In other words, the continent could be virtually emptied of its emblematic megafauna in just a few decades.
How can such catastrophic projections be explained ? Several factors come into play. Firstly, with an estimated average temperature rise of between +3°C and +4°C in the intertropical zone by 2050, vast swathes of the continent could simply become uninhabitable for many species.
Above all, the exceptional speed of this climatic runaway suggests that a large proportion of flora and fauna will be unable to adapt quickly enough. Unlike natural cycles of the past, this sudden change in just a few decades simply won’t give them time to migrate or evolve. Hence exponential local extinction rates, several times higher than previous geological eras, according to some experts.
The icing on the cake is that climate disruption is only accentuating all the other existing threats: destruction of natural habitats, poaching, pollution… Caught between these multiple anthropogenic pressures, African ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to the loss of their biodiversity.
The collapse of many emblematic ecosystems
In addition to the disappearance of numerous animal and plant species, scientists also fear the rapid decline of several emblematic ecosystems on the continent, the planet’s green lung.
This is particularly true of tropical rainforests, which the vast majority of climate models predict will virtually disappear in Central and West Africa by 2050. Between soaring temperatures and unbalanced rainfall cycles, their environment is rapidly deteriorating.
Further south on the continent, savannahs are also in serious danger. The dominant biome in countries such as Tanzania, Kenya and South Africa, these herbaceous expanses dotted with trees are in danger of becoming drastically rarer. Firstly, under the combined onslaught of desertification and the increasing number of mega-fires. But also because of the advancing tree cover, favoured by the relative surplus of atmospheric CO2. In just a few decades, the ecological map of these regions could be unrecognizable.
Finally, in a predominantly coastal Africa, coral reefs are also on the front line. Highly sensitive to thermal variations and increasing ocean acidification, they are already beginning to bleach on a large scale around the continent. These famous “underwater rainforests” are home to an extremely rich marine biodiversity, whose decline is closely linked to the fragile health of the corals. Here too, the spectacle of deserted reef barriers could become commonplace in just a few decades.
Ultimately, whole swathes of the continent’s natural heritage find themselves under direct threat from an unbridled climate. The result is a general impoverishment of the variety of life in Africa.
Climate scourge: fires, floods and storms in ambush
The latest worrying projection for the coming decades is the expected multiplication of extreme weather events in African latitudes. Between heat waves, droughts, devastating floods and hurricanes, the continent unfortunately still seems to be in the early stages of a climatic fury at its peak.
The warning signs are legion. Devastating fires such as those which destroyed 30% of Kilimanjaro National Park in 2020. Deadly floods, like those that ravaged Sudan last year, claiming 233 lives, including 117 dead and 116 injured, and displacing hundreds of thousands. Killer heat waves, such as the one that has already claimed the lives of over 70 people in early 2022 in north-west Tunisia…
According to a study by the African Development Bank published last year, the frequency of such events could increase 7-fold over the next 20 years! A frantic pace and exceptional intensity that augur disastrous consequences.
In addition to direct material and human damage, such climatic anomalies also seriously challenge the delicate balances on which ecosystems and their occupants depend. With natural habitats ravaged and animal species decimated by the thousands overnight, their unpredictability makes nature all the more vulnerable.
In short, the cocktail projected for the coming decades is as worrying as it is explosive for wildlife: recurring heatwaves, erratic rainfall, uncontrollable fires and extraordinary weather events. Under these conditions, it’s hard to imagine a bright future for the countless species that already inhabit the continent. If we don’t react quickly and decisively, we could unfortunately witness a biblical decline of life in Africa this century.
Adaptation solutions are emerging
After this brief overview, the facts are clear. Climate disruption is clearly jeopardizing the fates of many of Africa’s most emblematic species. In a few decades’ time, elephants, gorillas, cheetahs and rhinoceroses could be nothing more than taxidermied souvenirs in our museums…
But all hope is not lost. Parallel to this predicted decline, solutions are emerging to help nature adapt to this major upheaval. Ecological corridors, captive breeding programs, participatory reforestation… On their own scale, a number of players are mobilizing to increase the resilience of ecosystems and species that have been thrown into disarray.
Migration corridors for wildlife in disarray
The first course of action already tested in the field is the creation of ecological corridors to facilitate the movement and migration of wildlife. The principle ? Identify and protect a network of interconnected natural axes, to offer animals disoriented by the climate a network of possible routes to better-preserved habitats.
In concrete terms, these corridors take the form of riparian forests along watercourses, wooded areas linking several protected areas, vegetated “footbridges” over infrastructures… These are all shortcuts that facilitate the dispersal of animal species that have fallen into disarray due to climatic or human pressure.
Several African countries have already taken the plunge. In Kenya, for example, the Northern Rangelands Trust has mapped and secured ecological corridors enabling elephants and giraffes from the north of the country to reach less arid areas in the south.
In West Africa, the West African Protected Areas Network has also been weaving a formidable web between some fifteen nature parks from Burkina Faso to Sierra Leone since 2007. With several kilometers of marked wildlife corridors, it offers many species of large mammals the opportunity to move across borders. A healthy fluidity for animals in search of new territories to adapt to the changing climate.
While not a panacea, ecological corridors such as these offer real safety valves. By increasing connectivity between different habitats, they maximize the long-term survival chances of species forced to migrate under climatic or human pressure.
Conservation breeding programs, the ultimate safety net
Another way of saving critically endangered species in extremis is through captive breeding programs. When numbers in the wild become too low, temporary housing in zoos or specialized centers is often the only alternative to permanent extinction.
This is the case, for example, of the black rhinoceros in East Africa. A victim of decades of intense poaching, it came close to total extinction in the 1990s, with a drastically reduced number of individuals in the wild. Faced with this alarming decline, an international captive breeding program was launched in European zoos.
Almost 30 years later, the gamble has paid off: baby rhinos have been born and reintroduced into several parks in East Africa. Starting from almost nothing, this reacclimatized population is gradually recolonizing its former territory under strict surveillance, offering a historic second chance to this decimated subspecies.
Another similar initiative involves the oryx algazelle, a magnificent antelope endemic to the Sahel and classified as critically endangered in the wild. To preserve this desert bovid, a “safeguard” herd has been maintained since the 1960s at the Phoenix Zoo in the United States. With success: specimens reintroduced into several nature reserves in Chad and Senegal have since reproduced successfully. A success hailed by the IUCN as one of the world’s most effective ex-situ conservation operations.
Although costly and restrictive, these conservation breeding programs offer a last resort before the point of no return. By betting on future rewilding, they give certain species a chance to regenerate sheltered from external pressures, including the dreaded climate change.
Restoring and regenerating degraded ecosystems
The third type of initiative that is gaining ground on the continent is the restoration of natural habitats and reforestation. Here again, the idea is to anticipate climate change and give ecosystems the best possible chance of adapting to rising temperatures.
Reforestation is clearly a priority, given the crucial role forests play in regulating global and local climate. Yet deforestation continues to break records in Africa, amputating a little more of the planet’s green lung every year. Hence the importance of the Great Green Wall, the titanic project launched in 2007 under the aegis of the African Union in an attempt to green the 8,000 km Sahel strip from Senegal to Djibouti.
On a more local level, there’s also the NGO Green Congo initiative in the DRC. Since 2020, this community-based reforestation project on the outskirts of Brazzaville has already replanted over 2,500 hectares of degraded land, thanks to the mobilization of tens of thousands of local volunteers. Numerous other operations of the same type are flourishing in every corner of the continent.
Another original participatory action implemented in Kenya is the construction of water retention sills by the local populations themselves in eroded ravines, to combat desertification in certain regions. These small dams slow down runoff during rainfall, encouraging infiltration and revegetation of the soil below. After a few years, the vegetation turns green and many species return naturally!
From equatorial dry forests to coastal mangroves and arid savannahs, a host of habitat regeneration operations are being deployed across the continent. Restoring degraded ecosystems is the best service that mankind can now provide to wildlife disoriented by the effects of climate change.
Training local communities as eco-guards
A final type of action that is becoming increasingly widespread in Africa is the involvement of local communities as volunteer eco-guards to protect their land from poaching. Here again, the aim is to strengthen the resilience of wildlife and natural habitats in the face of multi-faceted pressures.
These programs are based on the simple observation that rural communities living in close proximity to wild animals are often the best placed to monitor them effectively. Hence the idea of training them and then employing them as community wildlife wardens: the famous “community scouts” now present in a dozen African countries.
In Uganda, for example, the Greater Virunga Transboundary Collaboration Network for Conserving Mountain Gorillas and their Habitat project brings together protected area rangers, researchers and local villagers. The aim is to monitor the impact of climate change on the great apes and raise local awareness of their need for protection. An integrated strategy crowned with success: the mountain gorilla population has steadily increased in just a few years!
Another pioneering initiative in Kenya is the Lion Guardians program. Since 2007, former Maasai hunters have been converted to community guards, ensuring peaceful cohabitation between their pastoral tribes and the big cats. Thanks to this unprecedented involvement of local people as active protectors of their region’s wildlife, lion attacks have dropped considerably in the areas concerned!
From the rainforest to the arid savannahs, from the mountains to the coastline, these community-based programs are proving to be highly effective in easing the recurring tensions between humans and wild animals. As the first line of defence against a changing climate, local residents become the first line of defence against the various threats to fragile ecosystems.
Finally, while the effects of climate change on wildlife are likely to be devastating, all may not be lost. Provided we combine our efforts and creativity at all levels, there is hope for increasing the adaptive capacity of life on our continent. And who knows, we might even be able to preserve enough habitats, migration corridors and genetic diversity among species to get through this tumultuous century without too much damage? Only time will tell…
Hope for a collective global awakening
The facts are clear: Africa’s wildlife is already suffering the full impact of climate change. Population decline, local extinctions, changes in distribution areas, habitat degradation… If we wait too long, the continent’s fabulous bestiary could face mass extinction by 2050.
However, all hope is not lost. Parallel to this predicted hecatomb, global awareness has been growing for some years now. Little by little, the challenges of preserving biodiversity in the face of climate peril have found their way into public discourse and onto political agendas. So much so that some observers believe that a collective global leap of faith is still possible, just a stone’s throw from the abyss.
Climate COP: now or never for African nature
The first glimmer of hope for the continent is the COP27 climate conference to be held in Egypt at the end of the year. Seeing this global event take place on African soil for the very first time is a powerful symbol.
For this is a crucial time to put nature conservation back at the heart of international negotiations. Given the scale of the damage already inflicted on ecosystems and their biodiversity, world leaders are expected to make strong, concrete commitments. Otherwise, we run the risk of becoming passive witnesses to the predicted demise of life in Africa and the world’s most fragile regions.
Fortunately, a few positive signs seem to be emerging. At the One Planet Summit in Paris in early 2022, the World Bank announced that it would devote part of its financing to projects that would benefit the climate, biodiversity and the fight against deforestation. This means potentially billions of dollars to restore and protect natural ecosystems, essential allies in the face of climate change.
Another notable announcement at the summit was the launch of an ambitious Great Green Wall program for the Mediterranean. Modelled on its sub-Saharan counterpart, this unprecedented project aims to restore degraded areas around the Mediterranean by 2030, by planting an additional billion trees locally. Here too, promising intentions that now need to be rapidly put into practice.
Biodiversity and climate, the same battle!
And that’s exactly what’s at stake right now: turning words into deeds. For behind the devastating effects of climate change on Africa’s wild animals, the same global ecological urgency shines through. The Earth system is spiraling out of control, threatening both the climate in the short term and life as a whole in the medium term.
Fortunately, the obvious links between climate change and the collapse of biodiversity are finally beginning to be seen by the general public and decision-makers alike. Under the unifying banner of “global ecological emergency“, IPCC scientists and IPBES experts are working together on these intimately linked issues.
Politically too, biodiversity is now on the discussion table. At the G7 summit in Germany in 2022, a club of wealthy nations pledged to contribute up to an additional $5 billion by 2025 to protect the planet’s most fragile natural ecosystems and species. A substantial envelope, even if here too, words must be followed by deeds…
Above all, the unifying concept of “One Health” is gaining ground in international bodies. By placing human, animal and environmental health within a common, inseparable framework, this holistic approach is gradually gaining ground. A welcome awareness of the interdependencies between climate, biodiversity, emerging zoonoses and social well-being.
Hope for increased funding
The icing on the cake is that the growing need to preserve and restore natural ecosystems essential to our common survival is beginning to unlock significant funding. Between improved carbon offset mechanisms and funds dedicated to biodiversity, money seems to be less of an issue than political will or the ability to trace its proper allocation.
According to the World Bank, the REDD+ mechanism (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) should generate several billion dollars by 2050 for tropical forest conservation actions. Given that these forests are home to over 80% of the world’s terrestrial biodiversity, there is no doubt that well-designed REDD+ programs could also directly benefit many critically endangered plant and animal species.
Another innovative initiative that is gaining momentum is green bonds with a positive impact on climate and biodiversity. Based on the principle of existing social bonds and green bonds, these SAS (Sustainability-linked bonds) link the interest rate paid by the issuer directly to the achievement of measurable environmental or societal sustainability objectives. A promising mechanism for boosting action and optimizing the allocation of billions of dollars invested.
Finally, specific funds are also multiplying to financially support local or national efforts in favor of biodiversity. One example is the Lions Share Fund, which brings together some thirty companies under the aegis of the United Nations to finance big cat conservation projects. Or the Elephant Crisis Fund run by Save The Elephant to support pachyderm conservation programs in Africa. These initiatives are still scattered, but reveal a growing mobilization.
In the final analysis, the picture is not as bleak as it might first appear. While the challenges of saving Africa’s wildlife in the face of climate change are colossal, there is no shortage of solutions to be implemented. And encouraging signs at last suggest the possibility of a collective planetary leap forward in the face of this peril.
Provided we can move beyond the stage of incantations and get down to the nitty-gritty of action ! Human and animal health, climate, biodiversity : the challenges are intimately linked. And so must the answers.
History will judge whether the new century will have risen to the challenge of civilization before it’s too late. See you at COP27 in Cairo for a decisive first milestone?
All mobilized for the future of life in Africa!
At the end of this wide-ranging review, the facts are, unfortunately, indisputable. Accelerated climate disruption is already putting Africa’s fabulous bestiary in a critical situation.
Caught between heatwaves, droughts, storms and other climatic joys in the making, many emblematic species are seeing their populations decline at an alarming rate. Their ability to adapt is likely to be far outstripped by the speed and scale of the upheavals underway. And in the face of a major global phenomenon for which it is not even responsible, Africa’s wildlife is hanging on by a thread.
However, it would be defeatist and counter-productive to throw in the towel or give in to fate. Alternatives exist to try and preserve what can still be preserved. Technical solutions, of course, such as the migration corridors and captivity programs described above. But also, and above all, encouraging political signals that suggest the possibility of a collective planetary awakening.
All that remains now is to make the most of this opportunity. On the eve of a collapse of biblical proportions of the living world in Africa, there’s no time to procrastinate. The next few years, months and weeks will be decisive if we are to halt the relentless process underway or tip definitively to the wrong side of history. A titanic race against time is underway, the outcome of which will depend on our collective ability to react quickly and decisively.
So yes, let’s avoid alarmist rhetoric, but let’s face reality. For the sake of our children and future generations, who have asked for nothing, we have an absolute duty to do everything we can. To save what can still be saved, to support the rest as best we can, and to preserve this formidable natural heritage bequeathed by millions of years of evolution. Our responsibility to the “community of life” is undeniable and imperative.
Citizens, NGOs, States, international institutions… It is all together and without further delay that we will forge this common future that is still possible, for humans and animals. So it’s up to us to roll up our sleeves – the task looks Herculean, but the stakes have never been so crucial!
